The Gem State has long been a hidden jewel in the real estate market. However, recent trends indicate a surge in the Idaho housing scene, making it a hot topic for both local and out-of-state buyers. A significant player in this landscape? Interest rates. Let's delve deeper into the current real estate climate in Idaho and how interest rates play a pivotal role.

Mortgage rates in Idaho worsened last week, as the Trump Admin and China looks like they have made a trade deal, or atleast Phase 1.  I indicated a few months back that I felt the closer we got to the election the more likely a trade deal would get done.  I really feel that this deal was pushed up to front run the impeachment hearings...but what ever.

The bond market and stock market really are not looking at economic numbers and is focusing on Trade, so no use speaking about numbers today (housing, unemployment, inflation).  I will speak about the pending recession, when ever that may happen.  Two talking heads spoke last week, pushing the recession out of 2020 and into 2021, and with the pending Trade Deal, 2020 is looking REALLY GOOD for economic growth.

Watch for the details to come out of the Trade Deal, this will really either set the stock market on FIRE, and thus mortgage rates will continue to go up.  OR if it is like the deal with Mexico/Canada, which is flaking out, then we could see stocks sell off and mortgage rate improve.

Mortgage rates worsened again last week for Boise & Nampa, and through yesterday. The main cause is the potential of getting a trade deal with China AND the potential of the Federal Reserve lowering rates this week. YES when the Federal Reserve lowers their rates, historically mortgage rates go up.

Mortgage rates were pretty much flat last week, but that was hugely STRANGE, as the stock markets totally sold off and typically with that much sell off, Mortgage Bonds would of rallied and rates should of improved, SIGNIFICANTLY. But they did not. Rates are currently worsening. With Consumer Confidence, GDP and Personal Consumption all this week, going to be a rough ride again for rates.

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Mortgage rates are on a cusp of jumping quite a bit higher, as the 10 year Bond and the Mortgage Bonds are close to making a jump, which would allow rates to jump in to the mid 5%.  We are going to watch Federal Reserve decision on Thusday, not for a rate increase, but for what their policy statement is.  Then on Friday we will have Producer Price Index, or inflation at the producer level, and also this week the US is going to sell of more of our debt, which will influence rates also.  Gonig to be another roller coaster week for rates, with the consensus that rates will increase.

Mortgage rates are still trending up, as last weeks wage inflation numbers was not pretty. This week we also have more wage inflation in the Consumer Price Index or CPI, which will really dictate rates. This will be the most looked at report this week. We also have the US selling debt in the form of Treasury auctions that will play a roll in rates as well. Anticipating rates worsening this week.
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We started last week with a nice improvement with Rates, then things cooled off in Turkey and we gave most of the improvement back, managed to squeak out a slight rate improvement. Over the weekend Turkey's bonds got cut to Junk status, thus putting EU banks in a little trouble. Money is moving from EU to the US and will keep our rates improving. Trump Tweets off the table, rates are all about Turkey now, and watch out for news from Italy...again, which might improve our rates also.

Mortgage rates are trending lower as traders are still trying to digest Friday's Job Numbers.  Was it low because business are not hiring or was it low because there are no workers.  I am of opinion of the latter, the US is at full employment, and thus wages are going to have to increase, thus inflation, and inflation is bad for Rates.  Today, we have Trump Tweeting about various items which is causing rates to decrease.  I am pretty cautious this week, as rates are in a position to break out and increase, but watch out on Trade Tweets.  Special note, we do get CPI or Consumer Price Index, which is gauge on inflation, all eyes will be focused on this report this week.

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Mortgage rates are set to increase:

• ADP Private Payroll
• US BLS unemployment rate
• PCE rates